Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
